Troy Brown Jr.
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Weaknesses & Concerns:
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Report By: Mark Wahlen
Profile:
Strengths:
Physical Tools
Standing 6’6.75” tall with a 6’10.25” wingspan and 208-pound frame, Troy Brown has prototypical size for an NBA wing. His measurables are comparable to current NBA wings such as: Stanley Johnson (6’6.5” tall with a 6’11.5” wingspan), Justise Winslow (6’6.5” tall with a 6’10.25” wingspan), Glen Robinson III (6’6.75” tall with a 6’10” wingspan) and Lance Stephenson (6’5.75” tall with a 6’10.5” wingspan). And although he’s not a great athlete (more on this later), his physical tools suggest that he’ll be capable of playing the 3 and maybe even some 4 in modern NBA lineups.
Positional Rebounding
Brown’s size, length, basketball IQ and effort level enabled him to be a high level rebounder for a collegiate wing this past season, averaging 6.2 total rebounds (TRB) per game and a 18& defensive rebounding (DRB%) rate (12% TRB%). For context: Brown ranked 87th amongst all NCAA forwards and guards in TRB’s this past season that played at least 1,000 minutes and ranked 71st in DRB% amongst the same group. For comparison: lottery projected Miles Bridges from Michigan state ranked 62nd in TRB’s and 68th in DRB% in that same group. It’s unclear how well this skill will translate to the NBA considering his below average athleticism, but he has good rebounding fundamentals and shows good rebounding IQ in terms of putting himself into the right positions to grab rebounds. This, combined with his strong effort level should enable his rebounding to translate to the NBA to some extent (statistically speaking, rebounding is one of the most translatable skills/stats from college to the NBA). However, his lack of elite athleticism (particularly his vertical explosiveness) does cause him some issues when trying to get out of area rebounds, as he can’t cover large areas of ground quickly (according to synergy, he only recorded 1 “long rebound” on the offensive glass all season). But despite his lack of vertical athleticism, he was a surprisingly effective offensive rebounder, averaging 1.5 offensive rebounds per game, and scoring 1.3 PPP on all offensive rebound put-back attempts (81st percentile, 12 FGA’s) this past season. Additionally, when he does grab a defensive rebound, he likes to “grab and go” and can make some things happen in transition situations with his vision and passing that will be intriguing to NBA teams. This shows up in his scoring numbers in transition, where he scored 1.25 PPP in transition as the ball handler (93rd percentile), most of these attempts occurring when he grabbed the rebound and pushed the ball up the floor himself.
Vision & Passing
One of Browns’ strongest skills is his above average vision and passing for a wing prospect (especially one so young). He makes high-level and intelligent passes with great pace on the ball and good accuracy. His upper body strength really helps him in being able to zip passes into tight windows and over long distances with accuracy. He could use some work on his touch in regards to when and where to pass the ball to certain player types (for example: he needs to learn to not rifle passes through traffic at rolling bigs, or at guards when they’re coming to get the ball, etc.), and it’s one of the reasons why he averaged 2.5 turnovers per game. But overall, Brown is one of the best passers in this draft class from the wing position; and is one that showcases high level vision, anticipation, reads and overall passing skill. And the stats back this up to a large extent: this past season, Brown averaged 3.2 assists per game with an assist rate (AST%) of 18.7%. For context: he ranks 7th out of all NCAA wing players that played at least 1,000 minutes this past season in assists per game and 8th in AST% within that same group. He’s also a smart and capable passer out of the pick and roll, with his passes to the roll man leading to 1.261 points per possession (PPP), which is in the 82nd percentile. NBA teams will be very intrigued by his ability to run the pick and roll at a high level from the wing position, but his inability to shoot or attack off the dribble in the pick and roll will limit his value in this regard a bit (more on this later). But he’s also shown flashes of brilliance and creativity with his vision, especially in transition or on broken plays, so NBA teams will certainly be intrigued by his positional passing ability.
Basketball IQ
Along with his passing and positional rebounding, another strong aspect of Brown’s profile is his basketball IQ. He’s a smart player that doesn’t find himself out of position often on either end of the floor. On offense, he’s pretty good at making reads with the ball in his hands, and is able to make correct passes when the defense collapses on him in the paint, within a pick and roll action, during transition or when teams bring the pressure with a double team. An example of this is seen in his low turnover rate on his passes when he’s the pick and roll ball handler, where he only turned the ball over 7% of the time. Brown has also shown good off ball movement with a good understanding of offensive spacing. On defense, he shows fairly good IQ and anticipation both on and off the ball. He’s good at reading plays as they unfold, and does a good job of positioning himself in the passing lanes of offensives (even if he cheats in the lanes a little too much at times). His ability to correctly read plays and anticipate passes is where many of his steals came from this past season (1.6 steals per game). But it’s also not uncommon to see him beat his man to a spot on the floor with his above average on-ball defensive anticipation and create on-ball steals with his positioning, length and quick hands. Brown has also shown good team defense IQ, being a willing bump man on rolling bigs and making good weak side rotations when the D breaks down. Overall, he’s a smart player that understands the game well on both ends of the floor at a team level and on an individual level. His high-level basketball IQ makes up a lot of the shortcomings that his average to below average athleticism leaves him with.
Positional Ball Handling
Brown is a wing, but he can handle the ball like a guard. He doesn’t necessarily have an array of advanced ball handling moves, and he struggles to create space at times in isolation, but he’s more than capable of bringing the ball up the floor and handling the ball in a variety of situations. He possesses an above average crossover for a wing, and has serviceable in and out and hang dribbles that he uses to decent effect. He’s capable of going to either hand, but prefers to go to his left (17 FGA’s as the P&R ball handler going to his left compared to 6 FGA’s when going right; 7 FGA’s in isolation going to his left compared to just 2 FGA’s when going to his right). And while he can be turnover prone when dribbling through traffic, he dribbles with intentionality, quickness and confidence that’s not common for a wing player of his size and young age. When Brown was younger, he grew up playing point guard, and that’s manifested itself in his ability to put the ball on the floor. NBA teams will be intrigued by his ability to handle the ball as a secondary or tertiary ball handler, especially with his high level vision, passing and basketball IQ.
Pick & Roll Offense Upside
As alluded to earlier, Brown is a strong pick and roll player for a wing. His passing acumen in the pick and roll has already been discussed, but he’s also shown the ability to score within the pick and roll as the ball handler. This past season, Brown scored 0.846 PPP as the P&R ball handler (70th percentile, 37 FGA’s). Almost all of these scoring attempts came from drives to the basket where he scored 1.389 PPP (94th percentile, 16 FGA’s). His above average ball handling, strength and length allow him to be an effective scorer off the screen, especially if the screener makes good contact with Browns’ defender and helps him gain a much needed half step or two (Brown can struggle to create this advantage on his own). And even with below average vertical explosiveness, once Brown has a step advantage on his defender, it’s hard for the defender to put themselves back into a position to contest Browns’ shots effectively at the rim as Brown can outreach most trailing defenders and does a good job of using his strength to bully them out of the way if they manage to fight back into position (more on this later). However, he wasn’t much of a threat when forced to shoot the ball as the P&R ball handler, only scoring 0.769 PPP on all dribble jumpers as the P&R ball handler (33rd percentile) this past season. This will limit his P&R scoring upside quite a bit at the NBA level as defenders will be able to contest his drives more effectively from the trailer position, and teams will most assuredly force him into more jump-shots by going under screens. But with that being said, Brown has shown a strong and tantalizing combination of passing and ability to get to and score at the rim as the pick and roll ball handler.
Finishing Around The Rim
He’s not an explosive finisher that’s able to play above the rim easily (especially in traffic or from a stand still), and he can struggle when finishing through contract or when going up against NBA length, but Brown is a very crafty finisher at the rim who’s not afraid of contact. This past season, Brown scored 1.323 PPP on shots around the basket that weren’t post-ups in the half-court (82nd percentile, 96 FGA’s) with a 10.4% free-throw rate. Brown loves to use his strength to bully his way to the basket and is fairly adept at getting to the free-throw line on drives, especially as the P&R ball handler, where he had a free-throw percentage of 17.3%. This also showed up in his isolation scoring attempts where he had a 14.8% free-throw percentage. And while he only averaged 3 FTA’s per game this past season, he had a decent .326 free-throw attempt rate. For comparison: that’s higher than other, more highly ranked wing prospects in this draft such as: Miles Bridges (.239 FTr), Mikal Bridges (.282 FTr) and Kevin Huerter (.307 FTr). Other than using his strength to create space and scoring opportunities at the rim, Brown has also shown an ability to score in crafty ways, using up and under type shots (amongst others) to create better scoring angles for himself around the rim that help him overcome his lack of explosiveness. Some of this won’t translate to the NBA where defenders are smarter and longer, but it’s a promising sign for Brown as he’ll need to rely more heavily on craft than athletic ability when finishing at the rim at the next level.
Defense
As mentioned earlier, Brown is a smart defender, but he’s also a fairly capable lateral athlete when it comes to moving his feet defensively. And although he can struggle to defend quicker athletes in space and be caught flat footed at times, his basketball IQ, effort level and strength helps to make up a lot of the difference when defending in isolation. This past season, Brown only allowed 0.833 PPP (87th percentile) when defending in isolation and only fouled 8.6% of the time on the opposing players shot attempts (with the low foul percentage speaking to his basketball IQ as a defender). Additionally, his length, effort level and strength make him a good defender when defending through screens and around the basket. This past season, Brown only allowed 0.625 PPP (78th percentile) when defending the pick and roll ball handler and only allowed 0.845 PPP (72nd percentile) when defending shots around the basket that weren’t post-ups. He works hard to fight through screens and does a good job at getting himself back into position to bother the ball handlers when acting as the trailing defender in the pick and roll. If Brown can find a way to be a more effective defender in space against quicker perimeter players, he projects nicely as a versatile defender on the wing in the NBA.
Versatility
Brown’s size, length and strength means that he could potentially switch 2 through 4 on defense, although it’s questionable if he could handle the speed of NBA 2’s. He’ll also need to add a little more weight and strength to be able to adequately guard bigger NBA 4’s, but that’s well within his realm of realistic outcomes, especially as his body matures. Offensively, a similar potential for versatility exists. Questions like: “can he play as a playmaking 4 in small ball lineups? Can he be used as a point forward in big lineups or 2nd units? Can he run weak side or even primary pick and roll actions as the ball handler?” will be asked about his offensive potential & versatility. But if he can develop into a player that can be a “yes” answer to any of those questions, then he’ll be a valuable rotational wing in the league (whether that be off the bench, starting or otherwise).
Intangibles
One of Brown’s most appealing traits is his intangibles profile. He’s a player that plays hard and with consistent focus. The known intel from his background checks all seem to check out at a high level, with many former coaches and teammates seemingly having nothing but good things to say about him as a person and his work ethic. Brown is also very well spoken and seems to be pretty self aware as a player. He’s the type of personality that NBA teams will feel comfortable betting on as he’s likely to be coachable, a hard worker in the offseason and a good locker room presence. This bodes well for his long-term upside as he needs to continue to work on his game and find a way to improve his athleticism.
Age
Brown is very young and will only be turning 19 years old soon. Being so young rates well for him as an NBA draft prospect, especially within statistical projection models. But will his athleticism improve with age? That’s uncertain (and unlikely). But being so young does mean he’ll have a longer time to work on his game (particularly his shooting) before he hits his prime.
Weaknesses & Concerns:
Vertical Explosiveness
Brown really lacks any type of functional vertical explosiveness unless he’s in space. He has a hard time elevating off the floor (at all) in traffic and that makes it much harder for him to finish through contact or over length when he’s met directly at the rim. It also makes it hard for him to avoid weak side shot blockers, and it wasn’t uncommon to see his shots be blocked from behind by a trailing defender. And while he can play above the rim in wide open space (and I mean WIDE open), he’s more than likely never going to be a player who puts people on posters, catches back door lob passes, becomes a tip-dunk threat or high points rebounds. He’s mostly a two-foot jumper that takes a long time to load up, and he essentially has no bounce from a stand still. In fact, there was several times in which Brown missed point blank lay-ups at the rim on cuts because he couldn’t elevate quickly enough to get the shot off cleanly before the defender recovered. This lack of vertical explosiveness showed at the NBA draft combine where he only posted a 33” max vertical and a 26” standing vertical. Those are comparable to other NBA players such as: Mike Scott (32.5” max, 27” standing), Klay Thompson (31.5” max, 26.5” standing), Chandler Parsons (31.5” max, 25.5” standing) and Lance Stephenson (33” max, 27” standing). In college, he often relied on his strength and craft to get shots off at the rim rather than elevating over the top. As such, he made a lot of hard shots in college that will likely not translate to the NBA. From a biomechanics perspective, Brown also appears to have longer calf muscles, which can be indicative of a shorter achilles tendon. This is important in regards to vertical explosiveness because a shorter achilles tendon can greatly limit vertical explosiveness in basketball players (longer tendon = more elastic energy potential that’s used for jumping). This is of course being assumed from analyzing pictures and film tape, so it can’t be confirmed without an in-person inspection, but it’s something to keep in mind for his long-term potential as it’s it could be an anatomical limitation that prevents him for becoming more vertically explosive, even as if he gets older and his bod matures.
Athleticism?
Brown’s general athleticism remains a big question mark. He has a serviceable first step when attacking closeouts, but he can’t attack or create off the dribble at a high level. He seems to have fairly quick footwork, but rarely if ever does it result in him creating space off the dribble or a step advantage on his defender. He seems to lack a level of explosive acceleration to his movements that prevents him from accomplishing this. If anything, it seems like his footwork and advanced ball handling skills make him seem quicker than he really is. When changing directions (on both on offense and defense) he can sometimes look flat footed, taking a long time time to load up before being able to explode through the direction changing movement. He also struggles to turn his hips quickly, which slows his directional change movements down significantly, especially on defense in recovery situations. And while he does exhibit some good balance, core strength and strong lower body mechanics, he just doesn’t seem to have anything more than average quickness and explosiveness. His NBA combine athletic testing numbers reflect this, where he only posted a 11.51 second lane agility time, 3.29 second lane agility time and a 3.33 second ¾ court sprint time. For comparison: his lane agility time ranked as the 16th slowest at this years combine (40th out of the 56 participants) while his shuttle run time ranked as the 12th slowest (44th out of 56 participants) and his ¾ court sprint time ranked as the 6th slowest (50th out of 56 participants). Overall, those numbers are comparable to current NBA players such as: Semaj Christon (11.55 lane agility, 3.21 shuttle run and 3.32 ¾ court sprint), Georges Niang (11.64 lane agility, 3.17 shuttle run and 3.49 ¾ court sprint), Jaron Blossomgame (11.53 lane agility, 3.26 shuttle run and 3.2 ¾ court sprint) and TJ Leaf (11.55 lane agility, 3.27 shuttle run and 3.27 ¾ court sprint). Whether or not Brown’s athleticism will improve or become more functional as he gets older is a question teams will want to consider before drafting him.
Self-Shot Creation?
The lack of explosive acceleration with the ball in his hands will limit Browns’ self shot creation upside significantly at the NBA level (as will his poor shooting, but more on that in a minute). Last season, Brown was a slightly below average scorer in isolation, scoring only 0.778 PPP on isolation attempts (17 FGA’s, 47th percentile). And as mentioned in the last section, he struggles to turn the corner on defenders, especially if he can’t use his strength to force his way around the defender or carve out space on his drives. This is where Browns’ length and crafty finishes around the helped him in college, but those aspects of his game aren’t likely to translate well to the NBA as he’ll face up against longer and more athletic defenders. This will be true when Brown tries to score out of the pick and roll as the ball handler, as he won’t be able to get down hill as easily on defenders when coming off the screens. This will be especially true in the NBA as defenses will likely drop under the ball screen and force him to become a jump shooter rather than a driver (Brown only scored 0.769 PPP on dribble jumpers as the pick and roll ball handler this past season, 33rd percentile). This will effectively take away his drive game on the pick and roll. It’s not likely that Brown will ever develop into a secondary or even tertiary self shot creator at the NBA level unless he makes major improvements in his shooting. Even in more advantage basketball type offensive systems, his lack of explosive acceleration, shooting and vertical explosiveness will limit his ability to create (and finish) his own shots, even when a big gets switched onto him (the big can just drop back and let him shoot a contested pull-up jumper or wait for him to drive at them and block his shots on the recovery).
Shooting
The most obvious concern about Browns’ game outside of his average to below athleticism is his shooting. His mechanics aren’t great and his shooting numbers reflect that. This past season, Brown only scored 0.768 PPP on all spot up shot attempts (120 FGA’s, 27th percentile), 0.734 PPP on all jump shots in the half-court (20th percentile), 0.812 PPP on 3’s (21st percentile, shot 29% 3P% on 3.1 attempts per game), 0.614 PPP on all jump shots off the dribble in the half court (44 FGA’s, 22nd percentile) and only 0.444 PPP on all medium range (17’ to <3 point line) shots (14th percentile). His catch and shoot numbers weren’t great either, even when unguarded, scoring only 0.783 PPP on all unguarded catch and shoot shots in the half court (15th percentile) and 0.831 PPP on all catch & shoot shots in the half court (25th percentile). More specifically about his shooting mechanics: Brown often turns sideways mid-air after his initial shooting setup (which is often already sideways), and he brings the ball back too far and off to the side. This bringing of the ball back and to the side of his head creates a lot of extra movement that causes him (in part) to have an inconsistent release. Because of his poor mechanics, it’s going to be hard for him to develop into a consistent shooter, especially off of movement, and it’ something that he’ll need to work hard on to become even an average NBA shooter. His free-throw shooting percentage of 74% seems to suggest that there’s more shooting potential there, but his overall free-throw shooting setup is much more compact and simple than his in-game). This is a legitimate concern that NBA teams will need to square with before drafting Brown. If he can’t shoot at even an average rate, it will greatly limit his overall value.
Floater Game?
Another concern with Brown’s game is his lack of a polished floater/runner game. This past season, he only scored 0.667 PPP on runners (floaters) in the half court (37th percentile). This is particularly concerning considering the difficulties he’ll likely have in getting to and finishing at the rim in the NBA. This will only be exacerbated by his complete lack of a mid-range jump shot (0.444 PPP, 14th percentile this past season). He seems to have nice touch around the basket with his crafty finishes, so maybe there’s some untapped potential there that can be unlocked with more work. But it’s something that he’ll need to continue to work on.
Turnover Prone
Overall, Brown is a pretty high basketball IQ player with good overall decision-making, but he can be turnover prone at times. Especially when dribbling through traffic, as he can get a little loose with his dribble, and when trying to force passes that just aren’t there to be made. He’s also prone to lazy passes at times, but that’s not a huge concern as it seems to be more about him being a young player than an overall indication of his focus level and decision making. But he did average 2.5 turnovers per game (compared to his 3.2 assists) with a TO% of 18.8% (AST% was 18.7%). For comparison: his 18.8% turnover rate (with his 21% usage rate) ranked 22nd (lower rank being worse) out of all forwards in the NCAA this past season that played at least 900 minutes with a 25% usage rate or less (202 total players).
Low Production
Last but not least, Brown just didn’t produce at a high level during his freshman season at Oregon. He only averaged 11.3 PPG on a fairly inefficient 44% FG% (49% eFG% and 53 TS%) while struggling with turning the ball over (2.5 TO’s per game, 3.1 TO’s per game per 40 minutes). His assists and rebounds were impressive for a wing, averaging 6.2 TRB’s and 3.2 APG’s (7.9 RPG and 4.1 APG per 40 minutes) but just how valuable are those numbers if Brown can’t stay on the floor with his poor shooting and below average shot creation? For comparisons sake: Brown’s 11.3 PPG is the lowest per game average amongst all the projected first round prospects that played in the NCAA this past season outside of Jaren Jackson Jr. (who averaged 5.5 points more per 40 minutes than Brown) and Michael Porter Jr. (who essentially didn’t play this past season due to his health). This is something that teams will need to consider before drafting Brown.
NBA Fit:
Troy Browns' ideal NBA fit will be on a team that needs wing depth but has established scorers and perimeter shooters that are in need of a secondary or tertiary ball handler. Teams with a history of player development are also preferred as he'll need time to continue to work on his overall skill polish and improve his shooting. Ideally, he won't be asked to take on a large role immediately, and will be allowed time to develop and mature physically.
Draft Range:
Overall, Brown has the physical tools, personality and unique skill-set (despite his lack of shooting ability) that will make it easy for teams to fall in love with him. However, the concerns are real and may turn off a lot of teams from drafting him above more polished players, especially ones that can contribute much better shooting. But all in all, Brown is still very young and has a lot of upside left in his development arc, so he’s clearly a 1st round talent.
Projected Draft Range: 15 to 30
- 18 year old wing from the University of Oregon
- Born in Las Vegas, Nevada
- Attended Centennial High School in Las Vegas & played for the Las Vegas Prospects AAU team
- Current agent: Mike Higgins & Adam Pensack
- Rank out of high school: 15th (5 star recruit)
- Named to the McDonald's All-American team and played in the McDonalds All-American game
- Son of Lynn and Troy Brown Sr.
- Mother ran track and father played basketball at Texas A&M. Both work as correctional officers in Nevada.
Strengths:
Physical Tools
Standing 6’6.75” tall with a 6’10.25” wingspan and 208-pound frame, Troy Brown has prototypical size for an NBA wing. His measurables are comparable to current NBA wings such as: Stanley Johnson (6’6.5” tall with a 6’11.5” wingspan), Justise Winslow (6’6.5” tall with a 6’10.25” wingspan), Glen Robinson III (6’6.75” tall with a 6’10” wingspan) and Lance Stephenson (6’5.75” tall with a 6’10.5” wingspan). And although he’s not a great athlete (more on this later), his physical tools suggest that he’ll be capable of playing the 3 and maybe even some 4 in modern NBA lineups.
Positional Rebounding
Brown’s size, length, basketball IQ and effort level enabled him to be a high level rebounder for a collegiate wing this past season, averaging 6.2 total rebounds (TRB) per game and a 18& defensive rebounding (DRB%) rate (12% TRB%). For context: Brown ranked 87th amongst all NCAA forwards and guards in TRB’s this past season that played at least 1,000 minutes and ranked 71st in DRB% amongst the same group. For comparison: lottery projected Miles Bridges from Michigan state ranked 62nd in TRB’s and 68th in DRB% in that same group. It’s unclear how well this skill will translate to the NBA considering his below average athleticism, but he has good rebounding fundamentals and shows good rebounding IQ in terms of putting himself into the right positions to grab rebounds. This, combined with his strong effort level should enable his rebounding to translate to the NBA to some extent (statistically speaking, rebounding is one of the most translatable skills/stats from college to the NBA). However, his lack of elite athleticism (particularly his vertical explosiveness) does cause him some issues when trying to get out of area rebounds, as he can’t cover large areas of ground quickly (according to synergy, he only recorded 1 “long rebound” on the offensive glass all season). But despite his lack of vertical athleticism, he was a surprisingly effective offensive rebounder, averaging 1.5 offensive rebounds per game, and scoring 1.3 PPP on all offensive rebound put-back attempts (81st percentile, 12 FGA’s) this past season. Additionally, when he does grab a defensive rebound, he likes to “grab and go” and can make some things happen in transition situations with his vision and passing that will be intriguing to NBA teams. This shows up in his scoring numbers in transition, where he scored 1.25 PPP in transition as the ball handler (93rd percentile), most of these attempts occurring when he grabbed the rebound and pushed the ball up the floor himself.
Vision & Passing
One of Browns’ strongest skills is his above average vision and passing for a wing prospect (especially one so young). He makes high-level and intelligent passes with great pace on the ball and good accuracy. His upper body strength really helps him in being able to zip passes into tight windows and over long distances with accuracy. He could use some work on his touch in regards to when and where to pass the ball to certain player types (for example: he needs to learn to not rifle passes through traffic at rolling bigs, or at guards when they’re coming to get the ball, etc.), and it’s one of the reasons why he averaged 2.5 turnovers per game. But overall, Brown is one of the best passers in this draft class from the wing position; and is one that showcases high level vision, anticipation, reads and overall passing skill. And the stats back this up to a large extent: this past season, Brown averaged 3.2 assists per game with an assist rate (AST%) of 18.7%. For context: he ranks 7th out of all NCAA wing players that played at least 1,000 minutes this past season in assists per game and 8th in AST% within that same group. He’s also a smart and capable passer out of the pick and roll, with his passes to the roll man leading to 1.261 points per possession (PPP), which is in the 82nd percentile. NBA teams will be very intrigued by his ability to run the pick and roll at a high level from the wing position, but his inability to shoot or attack off the dribble in the pick and roll will limit his value in this regard a bit (more on this later). But he’s also shown flashes of brilliance and creativity with his vision, especially in transition or on broken plays, so NBA teams will certainly be intrigued by his positional passing ability.
Basketball IQ
Along with his passing and positional rebounding, another strong aspect of Brown’s profile is his basketball IQ. He’s a smart player that doesn’t find himself out of position often on either end of the floor. On offense, he’s pretty good at making reads with the ball in his hands, and is able to make correct passes when the defense collapses on him in the paint, within a pick and roll action, during transition or when teams bring the pressure with a double team. An example of this is seen in his low turnover rate on his passes when he’s the pick and roll ball handler, where he only turned the ball over 7% of the time. Brown has also shown good off ball movement with a good understanding of offensive spacing. On defense, he shows fairly good IQ and anticipation both on and off the ball. He’s good at reading plays as they unfold, and does a good job of positioning himself in the passing lanes of offensives (even if he cheats in the lanes a little too much at times). His ability to correctly read plays and anticipate passes is where many of his steals came from this past season (1.6 steals per game). But it’s also not uncommon to see him beat his man to a spot on the floor with his above average on-ball defensive anticipation and create on-ball steals with his positioning, length and quick hands. Brown has also shown good team defense IQ, being a willing bump man on rolling bigs and making good weak side rotations when the D breaks down. Overall, he’s a smart player that understands the game well on both ends of the floor at a team level and on an individual level. His high-level basketball IQ makes up a lot of the shortcomings that his average to below average athleticism leaves him with.
Positional Ball Handling
Brown is a wing, but he can handle the ball like a guard. He doesn’t necessarily have an array of advanced ball handling moves, and he struggles to create space at times in isolation, but he’s more than capable of bringing the ball up the floor and handling the ball in a variety of situations. He possesses an above average crossover for a wing, and has serviceable in and out and hang dribbles that he uses to decent effect. He’s capable of going to either hand, but prefers to go to his left (17 FGA’s as the P&R ball handler going to his left compared to 6 FGA’s when going right; 7 FGA’s in isolation going to his left compared to just 2 FGA’s when going to his right). And while he can be turnover prone when dribbling through traffic, he dribbles with intentionality, quickness and confidence that’s not common for a wing player of his size and young age. When Brown was younger, he grew up playing point guard, and that’s manifested itself in his ability to put the ball on the floor. NBA teams will be intrigued by his ability to handle the ball as a secondary or tertiary ball handler, especially with his high level vision, passing and basketball IQ.
Pick & Roll Offense Upside
As alluded to earlier, Brown is a strong pick and roll player for a wing. His passing acumen in the pick and roll has already been discussed, but he’s also shown the ability to score within the pick and roll as the ball handler. This past season, Brown scored 0.846 PPP as the P&R ball handler (70th percentile, 37 FGA’s). Almost all of these scoring attempts came from drives to the basket where he scored 1.389 PPP (94th percentile, 16 FGA’s). His above average ball handling, strength and length allow him to be an effective scorer off the screen, especially if the screener makes good contact with Browns’ defender and helps him gain a much needed half step or two (Brown can struggle to create this advantage on his own). And even with below average vertical explosiveness, once Brown has a step advantage on his defender, it’s hard for the defender to put themselves back into a position to contest Browns’ shots effectively at the rim as Brown can outreach most trailing defenders and does a good job of using his strength to bully them out of the way if they manage to fight back into position (more on this later). However, he wasn’t much of a threat when forced to shoot the ball as the P&R ball handler, only scoring 0.769 PPP on all dribble jumpers as the P&R ball handler (33rd percentile) this past season. This will limit his P&R scoring upside quite a bit at the NBA level as defenders will be able to contest his drives more effectively from the trailer position, and teams will most assuredly force him into more jump-shots by going under screens. But with that being said, Brown has shown a strong and tantalizing combination of passing and ability to get to and score at the rim as the pick and roll ball handler.
Finishing Around The Rim
He’s not an explosive finisher that’s able to play above the rim easily (especially in traffic or from a stand still), and he can struggle when finishing through contract or when going up against NBA length, but Brown is a very crafty finisher at the rim who’s not afraid of contact. This past season, Brown scored 1.323 PPP on shots around the basket that weren’t post-ups in the half-court (82nd percentile, 96 FGA’s) with a 10.4% free-throw rate. Brown loves to use his strength to bully his way to the basket and is fairly adept at getting to the free-throw line on drives, especially as the P&R ball handler, where he had a free-throw percentage of 17.3%. This also showed up in his isolation scoring attempts where he had a 14.8% free-throw percentage. And while he only averaged 3 FTA’s per game this past season, he had a decent .326 free-throw attempt rate. For comparison: that’s higher than other, more highly ranked wing prospects in this draft such as: Miles Bridges (.239 FTr), Mikal Bridges (.282 FTr) and Kevin Huerter (.307 FTr). Other than using his strength to create space and scoring opportunities at the rim, Brown has also shown an ability to score in crafty ways, using up and under type shots (amongst others) to create better scoring angles for himself around the rim that help him overcome his lack of explosiveness. Some of this won’t translate to the NBA where defenders are smarter and longer, but it’s a promising sign for Brown as he’ll need to rely more heavily on craft than athletic ability when finishing at the rim at the next level.
Defense
As mentioned earlier, Brown is a smart defender, but he’s also a fairly capable lateral athlete when it comes to moving his feet defensively. And although he can struggle to defend quicker athletes in space and be caught flat footed at times, his basketball IQ, effort level and strength helps to make up a lot of the difference when defending in isolation. This past season, Brown only allowed 0.833 PPP (87th percentile) when defending in isolation and only fouled 8.6% of the time on the opposing players shot attempts (with the low foul percentage speaking to his basketball IQ as a defender). Additionally, his length, effort level and strength make him a good defender when defending through screens and around the basket. This past season, Brown only allowed 0.625 PPP (78th percentile) when defending the pick and roll ball handler and only allowed 0.845 PPP (72nd percentile) when defending shots around the basket that weren’t post-ups. He works hard to fight through screens and does a good job at getting himself back into position to bother the ball handlers when acting as the trailing defender in the pick and roll. If Brown can find a way to be a more effective defender in space against quicker perimeter players, he projects nicely as a versatile defender on the wing in the NBA.
Versatility
Brown’s size, length and strength means that he could potentially switch 2 through 4 on defense, although it’s questionable if he could handle the speed of NBA 2’s. He’ll also need to add a little more weight and strength to be able to adequately guard bigger NBA 4’s, but that’s well within his realm of realistic outcomes, especially as his body matures. Offensively, a similar potential for versatility exists. Questions like: “can he play as a playmaking 4 in small ball lineups? Can he be used as a point forward in big lineups or 2nd units? Can he run weak side or even primary pick and roll actions as the ball handler?” will be asked about his offensive potential & versatility. But if he can develop into a player that can be a “yes” answer to any of those questions, then he’ll be a valuable rotational wing in the league (whether that be off the bench, starting or otherwise).
Intangibles
One of Brown’s most appealing traits is his intangibles profile. He’s a player that plays hard and with consistent focus. The known intel from his background checks all seem to check out at a high level, with many former coaches and teammates seemingly having nothing but good things to say about him as a person and his work ethic. Brown is also very well spoken and seems to be pretty self aware as a player. He’s the type of personality that NBA teams will feel comfortable betting on as he’s likely to be coachable, a hard worker in the offseason and a good locker room presence. This bodes well for his long-term upside as he needs to continue to work on his game and find a way to improve his athleticism.
Age
Brown is very young and will only be turning 19 years old soon. Being so young rates well for him as an NBA draft prospect, especially within statistical projection models. But will his athleticism improve with age? That’s uncertain (and unlikely). But being so young does mean he’ll have a longer time to work on his game (particularly his shooting) before he hits his prime.
Weaknesses & Concerns:
Vertical Explosiveness
Brown really lacks any type of functional vertical explosiveness unless he’s in space. He has a hard time elevating off the floor (at all) in traffic and that makes it much harder for him to finish through contact or over length when he’s met directly at the rim. It also makes it hard for him to avoid weak side shot blockers, and it wasn’t uncommon to see his shots be blocked from behind by a trailing defender. And while he can play above the rim in wide open space (and I mean WIDE open), he’s more than likely never going to be a player who puts people on posters, catches back door lob passes, becomes a tip-dunk threat or high points rebounds. He’s mostly a two-foot jumper that takes a long time to load up, and he essentially has no bounce from a stand still. In fact, there was several times in which Brown missed point blank lay-ups at the rim on cuts because he couldn’t elevate quickly enough to get the shot off cleanly before the defender recovered. This lack of vertical explosiveness showed at the NBA draft combine where he only posted a 33” max vertical and a 26” standing vertical. Those are comparable to other NBA players such as: Mike Scott (32.5” max, 27” standing), Klay Thompson (31.5” max, 26.5” standing), Chandler Parsons (31.5” max, 25.5” standing) and Lance Stephenson (33” max, 27” standing). In college, he often relied on his strength and craft to get shots off at the rim rather than elevating over the top. As such, he made a lot of hard shots in college that will likely not translate to the NBA. From a biomechanics perspective, Brown also appears to have longer calf muscles, which can be indicative of a shorter achilles tendon. This is important in regards to vertical explosiveness because a shorter achilles tendon can greatly limit vertical explosiveness in basketball players (longer tendon = more elastic energy potential that’s used for jumping). This is of course being assumed from analyzing pictures and film tape, so it can’t be confirmed without an in-person inspection, but it’s something to keep in mind for his long-term potential as it’s it could be an anatomical limitation that prevents him for becoming more vertically explosive, even as if he gets older and his bod matures.
Athleticism?
Brown’s general athleticism remains a big question mark. He has a serviceable first step when attacking closeouts, but he can’t attack or create off the dribble at a high level. He seems to have fairly quick footwork, but rarely if ever does it result in him creating space off the dribble or a step advantage on his defender. He seems to lack a level of explosive acceleration to his movements that prevents him from accomplishing this. If anything, it seems like his footwork and advanced ball handling skills make him seem quicker than he really is. When changing directions (on both on offense and defense) he can sometimes look flat footed, taking a long time time to load up before being able to explode through the direction changing movement. He also struggles to turn his hips quickly, which slows his directional change movements down significantly, especially on defense in recovery situations. And while he does exhibit some good balance, core strength and strong lower body mechanics, he just doesn’t seem to have anything more than average quickness and explosiveness. His NBA combine athletic testing numbers reflect this, where he only posted a 11.51 second lane agility time, 3.29 second lane agility time and a 3.33 second ¾ court sprint time. For comparison: his lane agility time ranked as the 16th slowest at this years combine (40th out of the 56 participants) while his shuttle run time ranked as the 12th slowest (44th out of 56 participants) and his ¾ court sprint time ranked as the 6th slowest (50th out of 56 participants). Overall, those numbers are comparable to current NBA players such as: Semaj Christon (11.55 lane agility, 3.21 shuttle run and 3.32 ¾ court sprint), Georges Niang (11.64 lane agility, 3.17 shuttle run and 3.49 ¾ court sprint), Jaron Blossomgame (11.53 lane agility, 3.26 shuttle run and 3.2 ¾ court sprint) and TJ Leaf (11.55 lane agility, 3.27 shuttle run and 3.27 ¾ court sprint). Whether or not Brown’s athleticism will improve or become more functional as he gets older is a question teams will want to consider before drafting him.
Self-Shot Creation?
The lack of explosive acceleration with the ball in his hands will limit Browns’ self shot creation upside significantly at the NBA level (as will his poor shooting, but more on that in a minute). Last season, Brown was a slightly below average scorer in isolation, scoring only 0.778 PPP on isolation attempts (17 FGA’s, 47th percentile). And as mentioned in the last section, he struggles to turn the corner on defenders, especially if he can’t use his strength to force his way around the defender or carve out space on his drives. This is where Browns’ length and crafty finishes around the helped him in college, but those aspects of his game aren’t likely to translate well to the NBA as he’ll face up against longer and more athletic defenders. This will be true when Brown tries to score out of the pick and roll as the ball handler, as he won’t be able to get down hill as easily on defenders when coming off the screens. This will be especially true in the NBA as defenses will likely drop under the ball screen and force him to become a jump shooter rather than a driver (Brown only scored 0.769 PPP on dribble jumpers as the pick and roll ball handler this past season, 33rd percentile). This will effectively take away his drive game on the pick and roll. It’s not likely that Brown will ever develop into a secondary or even tertiary self shot creator at the NBA level unless he makes major improvements in his shooting. Even in more advantage basketball type offensive systems, his lack of explosive acceleration, shooting and vertical explosiveness will limit his ability to create (and finish) his own shots, even when a big gets switched onto him (the big can just drop back and let him shoot a contested pull-up jumper or wait for him to drive at them and block his shots on the recovery).
Shooting
The most obvious concern about Browns’ game outside of his average to below athleticism is his shooting. His mechanics aren’t great and his shooting numbers reflect that. This past season, Brown only scored 0.768 PPP on all spot up shot attempts (120 FGA’s, 27th percentile), 0.734 PPP on all jump shots in the half-court (20th percentile), 0.812 PPP on 3’s (21st percentile, shot 29% 3P% on 3.1 attempts per game), 0.614 PPP on all jump shots off the dribble in the half court (44 FGA’s, 22nd percentile) and only 0.444 PPP on all medium range (17’ to <3 point line) shots (14th percentile). His catch and shoot numbers weren’t great either, even when unguarded, scoring only 0.783 PPP on all unguarded catch and shoot shots in the half court (15th percentile) and 0.831 PPP on all catch & shoot shots in the half court (25th percentile). More specifically about his shooting mechanics: Brown often turns sideways mid-air after his initial shooting setup (which is often already sideways), and he brings the ball back too far and off to the side. This bringing of the ball back and to the side of his head creates a lot of extra movement that causes him (in part) to have an inconsistent release. Because of his poor mechanics, it’s going to be hard for him to develop into a consistent shooter, especially off of movement, and it’ something that he’ll need to work hard on to become even an average NBA shooter. His free-throw shooting percentage of 74% seems to suggest that there’s more shooting potential there, but his overall free-throw shooting setup is much more compact and simple than his in-game). This is a legitimate concern that NBA teams will need to square with before drafting Brown. If he can’t shoot at even an average rate, it will greatly limit his overall value.
Floater Game?
Another concern with Brown’s game is his lack of a polished floater/runner game. This past season, he only scored 0.667 PPP on runners (floaters) in the half court (37th percentile). This is particularly concerning considering the difficulties he’ll likely have in getting to and finishing at the rim in the NBA. This will only be exacerbated by his complete lack of a mid-range jump shot (0.444 PPP, 14th percentile this past season). He seems to have nice touch around the basket with his crafty finishes, so maybe there’s some untapped potential there that can be unlocked with more work. But it’s something that he’ll need to continue to work on.
Turnover Prone
Overall, Brown is a pretty high basketball IQ player with good overall decision-making, but he can be turnover prone at times. Especially when dribbling through traffic, as he can get a little loose with his dribble, and when trying to force passes that just aren’t there to be made. He’s also prone to lazy passes at times, but that’s not a huge concern as it seems to be more about him being a young player than an overall indication of his focus level and decision making. But he did average 2.5 turnovers per game (compared to his 3.2 assists) with a TO% of 18.8% (AST% was 18.7%). For comparison: his 18.8% turnover rate (with his 21% usage rate) ranked 22nd (lower rank being worse) out of all forwards in the NCAA this past season that played at least 900 minutes with a 25% usage rate or less (202 total players).
Low Production
Last but not least, Brown just didn’t produce at a high level during his freshman season at Oregon. He only averaged 11.3 PPG on a fairly inefficient 44% FG% (49% eFG% and 53 TS%) while struggling with turning the ball over (2.5 TO’s per game, 3.1 TO’s per game per 40 minutes). His assists and rebounds were impressive for a wing, averaging 6.2 TRB’s and 3.2 APG’s (7.9 RPG and 4.1 APG per 40 minutes) but just how valuable are those numbers if Brown can’t stay on the floor with his poor shooting and below average shot creation? For comparisons sake: Brown’s 11.3 PPG is the lowest per game average amongst all the projected first round prospects that played in the NCAA this past season outside of Jaren Jackson Jr. (who averaged 5.5 points more per 40 minutes than Brown) and Michael Porter Jr. (who essentially didn’t play this past season due to his health). This is something that teams will need to consider before drafting Brown.
NBA Fit:
Troy Browns' ideal NBA fit will be on a team that needs wing depth but has established scorers and perimeter shooters that are in need of a secondary or tertiary ball handler. Teams with a history of player development are also preferred as he'll need time to continue to work on his overall skill polish and improve his shooting. Ideally, he won't be asked to take on a large role immediately, and will be allowed time to develop and mature physically.
Draft Range:
Overall, Brown has the physical tools, personality and unique skill-set (despite his lack of shooting ability) that will make it easy for teams to fall in love with him. However, the concerns are real and may turn off a lot of teams from drafting him above more polished players, especially ones that can contribute much better shooting. But all in all, Brown is still very young and has a lot of upside left in his development arc, so he’s clearly a 1st round talent.
Projected Draft Range: 15 to 30
