Melvin Frazier Jr.
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Weaknesses & Concerns:
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Report By: Mark Wahlen
Profile:
Strengths:
Physical Tools & Athleticism
The most obvious intrigue of Frazier’s NBA profile upon first glance is his elite physical tools & athleticism. Standing 6’6” in shoes, Frazier has a massive 7’1.75” wingspan. For comparisons sake here’s some comparable NBA players in terms of height and wingspan to Frazier’s (note: most are at least an inch taller than Frazier): Draymond Green (6’7.5” in shoes, 7’1.25” wingspan) Robert Covington (6’7.5” in shoes, 7’1.75” wingspan), Otto Porter (6’8.5” in shoes, 7’1.5” wingspan) and Kelly Oubre (6’6.75” in shoes, 7’2.25” wingspan). Additionally, at this years NBA combine, he posted an impressive 40.5” max vertical (comparable to Norman Powell’s and Glen Robinson III’s max verticals during their combine showings) and a 31” standing vertical. In other words, Frazier is extremely long and can jump out of the gym. If you’d like to see for yourself, it doesn’t take a whole lot of work to find one of his highlight reel dunks on YouTube (the one against UNC is my personal favorite). He’s also a quick twitch athlete that shows excellent foot speed (and balance) on both ends of the floor (more on this later).
Finishing at the Rim
Directly related to his elite physical tools & athleticism, Frazier is a very good finisher around the rim. This past season, he scored 1.244 points per possession (PPP) on shots around the rim that weren’t post-ups (72nd percentile) and shot 62% on all 2-point field goal attempts (career 57% 2P%). His vertical explosiveness and length allow him to score over the top of, or around defenders. It also helps that he’s an aggressive rim attacker that’s not afraid to make contact with rim protecting bigs or when attacking the basket in traffic. And while this doesn’t always translate to free-throw attempts (only averaged 3.9 free throw attempts (FTA) per game this past season), he’s often able to convert the shot attempts regardless of contact; sometimes finishing plays with emphatic poster dunks or with crafty up and under scoop shot finishes. He’s also shown the potential to finish with both hands around the basket (although he favors going to his right) with good touch. Frazier’s also a legit lob target threat in the open floor or in the half-court, making him a dangerous alley-oop target whether it be on a backdoor cut or on the break. It’s not by accident that he scored 1.312 PPP in transition (89th percentile) this past season. And as a side-note that’s somewhat relevant to his ability to finish around the basket: Frazier was an elite post-up scorer this past season, scoring 1.44 PPP on post-ups (99th percentile, 25 attempts).
Cutting & Slashing
Along with his high level finishing around the rim, Frazier is also a great cutter & slasher in the half-court. He’s able to use his quickness to make backdoor or lane cuts, and his quick twitch explosive athleticism enables him to get to (or on top of) the rim quickly once he catches the ball. This past season, he scored 1.571 PPP on cuts, which was good enough to put him into the 97th percentile in that category (1.9 PPP on all basket cut scoring attempts this past season, 100th percentile). And while he only had 23 field goal attempts as a cutter this past season, it’s a part of his game that should have more opportunities to flourish in the NBA with additional spacing and more capable ball handlers that can get him the ball in the right spots at the right time.
Defense
Frazier is an elite defender and perhaps the best defender in the entire draft class. His quick foot speed enables him to stay in front of defenders and mirror their movements step for step (a skill only the most elite of defenders possess). This shows up in his isolation defense numbers from this past season, where he only allowed 0.667 PPP (78th percentile). That number is particularly impressive considering he was often tasked with defending the opposing teams best offensive player each night. Additionally, he also has very quick hands, that when combined with his length and quick foot speed, makes him a constant steal threat (both on and off the ball). This past season, Frazier averaged 2.2 steals per game (1.6 for his collegiate career) with a steal percentage of 3.6%. To put those numbers into perspective, out of all the players in the entire NCAA this past season that played 1,000+ minutes, Frazier ranked 12th in steals per game and 14th in steal percentage. He showed tremendous activity and engagement on the defensive end of the floor throughout the season, always getting his hands in passing lanes, constantly harassing ball handlers and being an aggressive double team defender. And despite his high activity level on defense, Frazier has a unique ability to not foul while defending, only averaging 2 personal fouls per game this past season. His effort, length and athleticism also make him a great on ball defender in pick and rolls. This past season, Frazier only allowed 0.627 PPP when defending the pick & roll ball handler. As long as he doesn’t get blown up by screens (more on this later), he’s able to harass the ball handler from behind with his length (0.7 blocks per game this past season). And as mentioned previously before, Frazier is a solid (not great) team defender that communicates well, often calling out defensive assignments in transition, making aggressive double teams or bumping rolling bigs or slashing wings when needed. Overall, he’s an elite on ball defender that’s a high level passing lane hawk with solid team defense upside that should translate well into the NBA, especially when considering his physical & athletic tools.
Shooting Upside
One of the more recent and intriguing developments of Frazier’s game is his shooting. He’s only a career 31% 3 point shooter (3P%) and 65% free-throw (FT%) shooter. But this past season, Frazier bumped his averages up to 39% 3P% (while shooting 3 attempts per game) and 71% FT%. Additionally, Frazier scored 1.046 PPP on all spot-up shot attempts this past season (74th percentile) while scoring 1.273 PPP on short (<17’) jumpers (98th percentile), 1.096 PPP on all 3 point shots (66th percentile) and 1.364 PPP on all unguarded catch & shoot shots (79th percentile). His mechanics aren’t ideal (more on this later), but they’re also far away from being broken as he gets good elevation on his jumpers with a fairly high and clean release at the top.
Playmaking & Shot Creation Upside
Although he doesn’t have much in terms of advanced ball handling (more on this later) and is primarily a straight line driver at this point in his career, Frazier is comfortable putting the ball on the floor with either hand and has shown flashes of playmaking & shot creation. His vision is also fairly underrated, even if it didn’t manifest often during his collegiate career (although, he didn’t have great talent around him to pass to). But it also seems as if it’s a part of his game that’s he’s just beginning to scratch the surface of (went from averaging 0.7 APG his freshman season to 2.9 this past season – his junior year). And his athleticism (particularly his 1st step) makes him a dangerous dribble drive threat against opposing defenders that close out too hard. He’s also very dangerous in the open floor as the ball handler, scoring 1.278 PPP (94th percentile) this past season when handling the ball in transition. By nature of his athletic tools and decent ball handling skills, Frazier has some upside as a playmaker & shot creator off the dribble, but it’s something he’ll need to continue to work on as he prepares for the NBA. In particular, teams will want to see how he can handle the ball in the pick & roll and when asked to create in isolation (more on this later).
Positional Rebounding
Another underrated part of Frazier’s profile is his positional rebounding. This past season he averaged 5.6 total rebounds per game (RPG), and is a career 4.4 RPG player. His 5.6 RPG’s this past season was the 54th best in total rebounds per game averages amongst all NCAA guards and small forwards that played at least 1,000+ minutes (68th best in total rebound percentage amongst the same group). With his length, athleticism and high motor, he’s a very good out of area rebounder that has strong potential to “grab and go” in up-tempo offensives. This pairs well with his high level transition ball handler scoring numbers, and is something that up-tempo teams may be able to tap into more at the NBA level. He’s also a constant tip-dunk threat on the offensive glass (1.2 ORB’s this past season).
Intangibles
Last but not least, Frazier has a strong intangibles profile, showcasing a high and consistent motor throughout the season despite being on a lesser talented and less successful small school team. He’s also a great communicator on defense and comes across as very coachable with his head coach at Tulane (former NBA head coach Mike Dunleavy Sr.) often singing his praises. And while he doesn’t fancy himself a basketball film fanatic (more on this later), he’s shown great improvement over the course of his collegiate career, which seems to indicate a strong work ethic off the court (increased from 5.2 PPG his freshman year to 16 PPG last year with his shooting and assist # improvements having been mentioned previously in this report). He’s also stepped up big in some of Tulane’s biggest match-up’s this past season, scoring 27 points against UNC, 25 points against Temple University, 27 against SMU and 22 points against Wichita State.
Weaknesses & Concerns:
Age
Although it’s often overblown and unfairly used against NBA prospects as part of their evaluation, it’d be remiss not to mention Frazier’s older age of 21 years old (turns 22 in August). It’s not a huge deal, but that essentially puts him at least 2 to 3 years older than many of the other 1st round prospects in this draft class. However, with his game blossoming the last couple seasons, it seems as if Frazier has a decent amount of upside left as a late-bloomer.
Strength & Defending Through Screens
One area of concern about Frazier that hasn’t been talked about enough is his slender frame. He weighed in at a healthy 198 pounds at the NBA draft combine, but his frame is very slender, allowing him to get bullied around at times. And even though he’s a high motor defender, he too often gets taken out by good screens set by larger screeners. This shows up in some of his defensive numbers: allowing 1.12 PPP when guarding the scorer off screens (23rd percentile, 17 FGA’s) and 1.091 PPP during dribble hand offs (19th percentile, 18 FGA’s). He’ll need to continue to work on adding more strength to his slender frame and better learn how to fight through screens if he wants to be a high-level wing perimeter defender in the NBA, especially since the great teams like the Warriors, Rockets, Celtics, etc. that everyone is trying to catch up to run several screening actions each possession; either it be on the ball screens or off ball screens, so he won’t be able to hide that aspect of his game. His lack of strength also comes into play at times when he’s driving to the basket. At times, he can get stuffed by stronger defenders that are able to stay in front of him on drives. When this happens, it takes away a lot of Fraziers’ vertical explosiveness, as he’s not able to drive through the contact with enough force to elevate over the top of the defender.
Advanced Ball Handling
As mentioned previously, Frazier doesn’t possess much in terms of advanced ball handling. He’s a straight-line driver that flashes some basic around the back and between the legs dribbles, but he can really struggle to create space or turn the corner on better, well-balanced defenders. He’s also prone to dribble turnovers in traffic as his handle can get a little bit too high and loose at times, and he can get knocked off balance by more physical defenders. He could really use to work on some simple quick & low crossovers and hesitation dribbles to better help him gain an advantage on defenders in isolation.
Self-Shot Creation
Related to the concerns about his strength and advance ball handling, Frazier struggled to create his own shot at the collegiate level. This past season, he only scored 0.545 PPP in isolation (14th percentile) on only 7 isolation-scoring attempts. Why the low isolation scoring attempts? Some of it is due to Tulane’s system, as coach Dunleavy believes in ball movement and keeping everyone involved. But a lot of it has to do with the fact that Frazier just wasn’t capable of putting himself into a position to score. When he did attack in isolation, he was often stuffed by defenders that put a body on him, or he wasn’t able to create enough of an advantage that allowed him to turn the corner. This more often times than not led to him passing out of his iso attempts and the offense resetting (scoring #’s in isolation when including passes was only 0.471 PPP, 7th percentile with only 12 FGA’s). Give, this may not be a huge concern for many teams as Frazier is likely being viewed as a 3 & D specialist that won’t be asked to create much off the dribble, but it’s something to keep in mind when considering how he’d fit on a playoff team that’s likely to face the Warriors, Rockets or Celtics who switch everything on D, forcing isolation scoring attempts off the dribble.
Pick & Roll Offense
Another major concern about Fraziers’ offense is his ability to score and create as the ball handler in the pick & roll. This past season, he only scored 0.629 PPP as the ball handler in P&R’s (26th percentile, 36 FGA’s) and when including passes, it only jumped “up” to 0.698 PPP (19th percentile). Now, he has shown flashes of scoring & playmaking out of the pick & roll throughout the season, and it’s something that coach Dunleavy is quick to mention as a yet fully realized part of his game, but it still remains a massive question mark for him as he enters the NBA. And in a league where the pick & roll is so heavily utilized, it’s something that teams will want to see him do during workouts. Again, it may not be such a big concern for teams that see him as a 3 & D wing, but it’s something to keep in mind when thinking about his potential offensive value.
Floater Game
Frazier is also limited entirely to spot-up shooting or getting to the rim, possessing essentially no mid-range scoring ability. This past season, Frazier only attempted 9 runners/floaters and only scored 0.667 PPP on those 9 attempts. And as previously mentioned, he only attempted 8 mid-range jump shots, missing all 8 of them. Not a huge concern for a 3 & D prospect, especially with mid-range shots quickly going out of style in the NBA, but it’s just another limitation in his offensive game that NBA teams need to keep in mind. Although, his touch around the rim indicates there may be some untapped potential there that teams can try to develop (although, it’s uncommon for prospects that don’t have any sort of mid-range game upon entering the league to ever develop it).
Basketball IQ & Feel For The Game?
While Frazier has shown positive improvements in passing the ball the past couple season, most of the advanced passing numbers for Frazier aren’t good when looking at this past season, many being in the bottom 20 percentile (with the lone exception being post-up scoring numbers w/passes included). Some of this has to do with the lack of talent around him, as his teammates struggled to finish plays or make shots at times. But a lot of it has to do with Frazier not making the correct read and subsequent passes often. In this sense, Frazier hasn’t shown a great feel or understanding of the game on the offensive end of the floor, and is one of the main reasons why he struggles to score or create good shots as the pick & roll ball handler. Defensively, he makes great reads, so there seems to be a lot of potential there for him to develop his feel and IQ on the offensive end of the floor with more repetitions and film study. However, one unique aspect about Frazier off the court is that he doesn’t watch basketball. In fact, he watches so little of it outside of team film sessions that he didn’t even know who DeMar DeRozan was until just recently. It’s a unique aspect of his personality that teams will certainly have questions about as they try to gauge his love of the game and commitment to improving his basketball IQ and feel for the game.
Shooting?
Although his shooting has improved drastically this past year, there’s still some legitimate concerns about its sustainability. His mechanics aren’t ideal, with his feet often starting out too narrow and turned sideways, making it hard for him to find consistency in his shooting balance, especially on the move or off the dribble (only scored 0.75 PPP on dribble jumpers (44th percentile) and only took 8 midrange (17’ to <3 point line) shots, missing all of them this past season). He also starts his shooting motion a bit too far back and to the side, which can lead to inconsistent mechanics and prolonging or mistiming of his release (he’s prone to release the ball on his way down rather than at the peak of his jump). And when he misses, it’s not very consistent. Typically, you’d like to see consistent misses that are either short or long, but Frazier misses short, long and off to either side, indicating inconsistent shot mechanics that may take a lot of work to remedy (mechanics that yield consistent misses long or short are typically easier to fix than those that yield inconsistent misses off the either side of the rim). This will be a huge question mark about Fraziers’ game that NBA teams will want answered as perimeter shooting, (especially from wings and guards) is at an all time high value in the league.
NBA Fit: Coming soon!
Draft Range:
Just considering his elite physical tools & athleticism, Frazier will certainly draw a lot of interest from NBA teams. Add in his elite defense and budding shooting ability with those and he makes for a very intriguing (and highly sought after) 3 & D prospect that every NBA team is looking for. And while teams certainly have a lot of questions about many other area’s of his game, after a very strong NBA combine showing (including an impressive day 1 performance in the 5 on 5 action), it’s safe to say that Frazier will be a first round, early 2nd round pick in this years draft.
Projected Draft Range: 20-35
- 21 year old, 6'6" forward from Tulane University
- 7'1.75" wingspan with a 40.5" max vertical
- 4 year letter winner at L.W. Wiggins high school
- Ranking out of high school: 4 star recruit
- Son of Natasha Dorsey
Strengths:
Physical Tools & Athleticism
The most obvious intrigue of Frazier’s NBA profile upon first glance is his elite physical tools & athleticism. Standing 6’6” in shoes, Frazier has a massive 7’1.75” wingspan. For comparisons sake here’s some comparable NBA players in terms of height and wingspan to Frazier’s (note: most are at least an inch taller than Frazier): Draymond Green (6’7.5” in shoes, 7’1.25” wingspan) Robert Covington (6’7.5” in shoes, 7’1.75” wingspan), Otto Porter (6’8.5” in shoes, 7’1.5” wingspan) and Kelly Oubre (6’6.75” in shoes, 7’2.25” wingspan). Additionally, at this years NBA combine, he posted an impressive 40.5” max vertical (comparable to Norman Powell’s and Glen Robinson III’s max verticals during their combine showings) and a 31” standing vertical. In other words, Frazier is extremely long and can jump out of the gym. If you’d like to see for yourself, it doesn’t take a whole lot of work to find one of his highlight reel dunks on YouTube (the one against UNC is my personal favorite). He’s also a quick twitch athlete that shows excellent foot speed (and balance) on both ends of the floor (more on this later).
Finishing at the Rim
Directly related to his elite physical tools & athleticism, Frazier is a very good finisher around the rim. This past season, he scored 1.244 points per possession (PPP) on shots around the rim that weren’t post-ups (72nd percentile) and shot 62% on all 2-point field goal attempts (career 57% 2P%). His vertical explosiveness and length allow him to score over the top of, or around defenders. It also helps that he’s an aggressive rim attacker that’s not afraid to make contact with rim protecting bigs or when attacking the basket in traffic. And while this doesn’t always translate to free-throw attempts (only averaged 3.9 free throw attempts (FTA) per game this past season), he’s often able to convert the shot attempts regardless of contact; sometimes finishing plays with emphatic poster dunks or with crafty up and under scoop shot finishes. He’s also shown the potential to finish with both hands around the basket (although he favors going to his right) with good touch. Frazier’s also a legit lob target threat in the open floor or in the half-court, making him a dangerous alley-oop target whether it be on a backdoor cut or on the break. It’s not by accident that he scored 1.312 PPP in transition (89th percentile) this past season. And as a side-note that’s somewhat relevant to his ability to finish around the basket: Frazier was an elite post-up scorer this past season, scoring 1.44 PPP on post-ups (99th percentile, 25 attempts).
Cutting & Slashing
Along with his high level finishing around the rim, Frazier is also a great cutter & slasher in the half-court. He’s able to use his quickness to make backdoor or lane cuts, and his quick twitch explosive athleticism enables him to get to (or on top of) the rim quickly once he catches the ball. This past season, he scored 1.571 PPP on cuts, which was good enough to put him into the 97th percentile in that category (1.9 PPP on all basket cut scoring attempts this past season, 100th percentile). And while he only had 23 field goal attempts as a cutter this past season, it’s a part of his game that should have more opportunities to flourish in the NBA with additional spacing and more capable ball handlers that can get him the ball in the right spots at the right time.
Defense
Frazier is an elite defender and perhaps the best defender in the entire draft class. His quick foot speed enables him to stay in front of defenders and mirror their movements step for step (a skill only the most elite of defenders possess). This shows up in his isolation defense numbers from this past season, where he only allowed 0.667 PPP (78th percentile). That number is particularly impressive considering he was often tasked with defending the opposing teams best offensive player each night. Additionally, he also has very quick hands, that when combined with his length and quick foot speed, makes him a constant steal threat (both on and off the ball). This past season, Frazier averaged 2.2 steals per game (1.6 for his collegiate career) with a steal percentage of 3.6%. To put those numbers into perspective, out of all the players in the entire NCAA this past season that played 1,000+ minutes, Frazier ranked 12th in steals per game and 14th in steal percentage. He showed tremendous activity and engagement on the defensive end of the floor throughout the season, always getting his hands in passing lanes, constantly harassing ball handlers and being an aggressive double team defender. And despite his high activity level on defense, Frazier has a unique ability to not foul while defending, only averaging 2 personal fouls per game this past season. His effort, length and athleticism also make him a great on ball defender in pick and rolls. This past season, Frazier only allowed 0.627 PPP when defending the pick & roll ball handler. As long as he doesn’t get blown up by screens (more on this later), he’s able to harass the ball handler from behind with his length (0.7 blocks per game this past season). And as mentioned previously before, Frazier is a solid (not great) team defender that communicates well, often calling out defensive assignments in transition, making aggressive double teams or bumping rolling bigs or slashing wings when needed. Overall, he’s an elite on ball defender that’s a high level passing lane hawk with solid team defense upside that should translate well into the NBA, especially when considering his physical & athletic tools.
Shooting Upside
One of the more recent and intriguing developments of Frazier’s game is his shooting. He’s only a career 31% 3 point shooter (3P%) and 65% free-throw (FT%) shooter. But this past season, Frazier bumped his averages up to 39% 3P% (while shooting 3 attempts per game) and 71% FT%. Additionally, Frazier scored 1.046 PPP on all spot-up shot attempts this past season (74th percentile) while scoring 1.273 PPP on short (<17’) jumpers (98th percentile), 1.096 PPP on all 3 point shots (66th percentile) and 1.364 PPP on all unguarded catch & shoot shots (79th percentile). His mechanics aren’t ideal (more on this later), but they’re also far away from being broken as he gets good elevation on his jumpers with a fairly high and clean release at the top.
Playmaking & Shot Creation Upside
Although he doesn’t have much in terms of advanced ball handling (more on this later) and is primarily a straight line driver at this point in his career, Frazier is comfortable putting the ball on the floor with either hand and has shown flashes of playmaking & shot creation. His vision is also fairly underrated, even if it didn’t manifest often during his collegiate career (although, he didn’t have great talent around him to pass to). But it also seems as if it’s a part of his game that’s he’s just beginning to scratch the surface of (went from averaging 0.7 APG his freshman season to 2.9 this past season – his junior year). And his athleticism (particularly his 1st step) makes him a dangerous dribble drive threat against opposing defenders that close out too hard. He’s also very dangerous in the open floor as the ball handler, scoring 1.278 PPP (94th percentile) this past season when handling the ball in transition. By nature of his athletic tools and decent ball handling skills, Frazier has some upside as a playmaker & shot creator off the dribble, but it’s something he’ll need to continue to work on as he prepares for the NBA. In particular, teams will want to see how he can handle the ball in the pick & roll and when asked to create in isolation (more on this later).
Positional Rebounding
Another underrated part of Frazier’s profile is his positional rebounding. This past season he averaged 5.6 total rebounds per game (RPG), and is a career 4.4 RPG player. His 5.6 RPG’s this past season was the 54th best in total rebounds per game averages amongst all NCAA guards and small forwards that played at least 1,000+ minutes (68th best in total rebound percentage amongst the same group). With his length, athleticism and high motor, he’s a very good out of area rebounder that has strong potential to “grab and go” in up-tempo offensives. This pairs well with his high level transition ball handler scoring numbers, and is something that up-tempo teams may be able to tap into more at the NBA level. He’s also a constant tip-dunk threat on the offensive glass (1.2 ORB’s this past season).
Intangibles
Last but not least, Frazier has a strong intangibles profile, showcasing a high and consistent motor throughout the season despite being on a lesser talented and less successful small school team. He’s also a great communicator on defense and comes across as very coachable with his head coach at Tulane (former NBA head coach Mike Dunleavy Sr.) often singing his praises. And while he doesn’t fancy himself a basketball film fanatic (more on this later), he’s shown great improvement over the course of his collegiate career, which seems to indicate a strong work ethic off the court (increased from 5.2 PPG his freshman year to 16 PPG last year with his shooting and assist # improvements having been mentioned previously in this report). He’s also stepped up big in some of Tulane’s biggest match-up’s this past season, scoring 27 points against UNC, 25 points against Temple University, 27 against SMU and 22 points against Wichita State.
Weaknesses & Concerns:
Age
Although it’s often overblown and unfairly used against NBA prospects as part of their evaluation, it’d be remiss not to mention Frazier’s older age of 21 years old (turns 22 in August). It’s not a huge deal, but that essentially puts him at least 2 to 3 years older than many of the other 1st round prospects in this draft class. However, with his game blossoming the last couple seasons, it seems as if Frazier has a decent amount of upside left as a late-bloomer.
Strength & Defending Through Screens
One area of concern about Frazier that hasn’t been talked about enough is his slender frame. He weighed in at a healthy 198 pounds at the NBA draft combine, but his frame is very slender, allowing him to get bullied around at times. And even though he’s a high motor defender, he too often gets taken out by good screens set by larger screeners. This shows up in some of his defensive numbers: allowing 1.12 PPP when guarding the scorer off screens (23rd percentile, 17 FGA’s) and 1.091 PPP during dribble hand offs (19th percentile, 18 FGA’s). He’ll need to continue to work on adding more strength to his slender frame and better learn how to fight through screens if he wants to be a high-level wing perimeter defender in the NBA, especially since the great teams like the Warriors, Rockets, Celtics, etc. that everyone is trying to catch up to run several screening actions each possession; either it be on the ball screens or off ball screens, so he won’t be able to hide that aspect of his game. His lack of strength also comes into play at times when he’s driving to the basket. At times, he can get stuffed by stronger defenders that are able to stay in front of him on drives. When this happens, it takes away a lot of Fraziers’ vertical explosiveness, as he’s not able to drive through the contact with enough force to elevate over the top of the defender.
Advanced Ball Handling
As mentioned previously, Frazier doesn’t possess much in terms of advanced ball handling. He’s a straight-line driver that flashes some basic around the back and between the legs dribbles, but he can really struggle to create space or turn the corner on better, well-balanced defenders. He’s also prone to dribble turnovers in traffic as his handle can get a little bit too high and loose at times, and he can get knocked off balance by more physical defenders. He could really use to work on some simple quick & low crossovers and hesitation dribbles to better help him gain an advantage on defenders in isolation.
Self-Shot Creation
Related to the concerns about his strength and advance ball handling, Frazier struggled to create his own shot at the collegiate level. This past season, he only scored 0.545 PPP in isolation (14th percentile) on only 7 isolation-scoring attempts. Why the low isolation scoring attempts? Some of it is due to Tulane’s system, as coach Dunleavy believes in ball movement and keeping everyone involved. But a lot of it has to do with the fact that Frazier just wasn’t capable of putting himself into a position to score. When he did attack in isolation, he was often stuffed by defenders that put a body on him, or he wasn’t able to create enough of an advantage that allowed him to turn the corner. This more often times than not led to him passing out of his iso attempts and the offense resetting (scoring #’s in isolation when including passes was only 0.471 PPP, 7th percentile with only 12 FGA’s). Give, this may not be a huge concern for many teams as Frazier is likely being viewed as a 3 & D specialist that won’t be asked to create much off the dribble, but it’s something to keep in mind when considering how he’d fit on a playoff team that’s likely to face the Warriors, Rockets or Celtics who switch everything on D, forcing isolation scoring attempts off the dribble.
Pick & Roll Offense
Another major concern about Fraziers’ offense is his ability to score and create as the ball handler in the pick & roll. This past season, he only scored 0.629 PPP as the ball handler in P&R’s (26th percentile, 36 FGA’s) and when including passes, it only jumped “up” to 0.698 PPP (19th percentile). Now, he has shown flashes of scoring & playmaking out of the pick & roll throughout the season, and it’s something that coach Dunleavy is quick to mention as a yet fully realized part of his game, but it still remains a massive question mark for him as he enters the NBA. And in a league where the pick & roll is so heavily utilized, it’s something that teams will want to see him do during workouts. Again, it may not be such a big concern for teams that see him as a 3 & D wing, but it’s something to keep in mind when thinking about his potential offensive value.
Floater Game
Frazier is also limited entirely to spot-up shooting or getting to the rim, possessing essentially no mid-range scoring ability. This past season, Frazier only attempted 9 runners/floaters and only scored 0.667 PPP on those 9 attempts. And as previously mentioned, he only attempted 8 mid-range jump shots, missing all 8 of them. Not a huge concern for a 3 & D prospect, especially with mid-range shots quickly going out of style in the NBA, but it’s just another limitation in his offensive game that NBA teams need to keep in mind. Although, his touch around the rim indicates there may be some untapped potential there that teams can try to develop (although, it’s uncommon for prospects that don’t have any sort of mid-range game upon entering the league to ever develop it).
Basketball IQ & Feel For The Game?
While Frazier has shown positive improvements in passing the ball the past couple season, most of the advanced passing numbers for Frazier aren’t good when looking at this past season, many being in the bottom 20 percentile (with the lone exception being post-up scoring numbers w/passes included). Some of this has to do with the lack of talent around him, as his teammates struggled to finish plays or make shots at times. But a lot of it has to do with Frazier not making the correct read and subsequent passes often. In this sense, Frazier hasn’t shown a great feel or understanding of the game on the offensive end of the floor, and is one of the main reasons why he struggles to score or create good shots as the pick & roll ball handler. Defensively, he makes great reads, so there seems to be a lot of potential there for him to develop his feel and IQ on the offensive end of the floor with more repetitions and film study. However, one unique aspect about Frazier off the court is that he doesn’t watch basketball. In fact, he watches so little of it outside of team film sessions that he didn’t even know who DeMar DeRozan was until just recently. It’s a unique aspect of his personality that teams will certainly have questions about as they try to gauge his love of the game and commitment to improving his basketball IQ and feel for the game.
Shooting?
Although his shooting has improved drastically this past year, there’s still some legitimate concerns about its sustainability. His mechanics aren’t ideal, with his feet often starting out too narrow and turned sideways, making it hard for him to find consistency in his shooting balance, especially on the move or off the dribble (only scored 0.75 PPP on dribble jumpers (44th percentile) and only took 8 midrange (17’ to <3 point line) shots, missing all of them this past season). He also starts his shooting motion a bit too far back and to the side, which can lead to inconsistent mechanics and prolonging or mistiming of his release (he’s prone to release the ball on his way down rather than at the peak of his jump). And when he misses, it’s not very consistent. Typically, you’d like to see consistent misses that are either short or long, but Frazier misses short, long and off to either side, indicating inconsistent shot mechanics that may take a lot of work to remedy (mechanics that yield consistent misses long or short are typically easier to fix than those that yield inconsistent misses off the either side of the rim). This will be a huge question mark about Fraziers’ game that NBA teams will want answered as perimeter shooting, (especially from wings and guards) is at an all time high value in the league.
NBA Fit: Coming soon!
Draft Range:
Just considering his elite physical tools & athleticism, Frazier will certainly draw a lot of interest from NBA teams. Add in his elite defense and budding shooting ability with those and he makes for a very intriguing (and highly sought after) 3 & D prospect that every NBA team is looking for. And while teams certainly have a lot of questions about many other area’s of his game, after a very strong NBA combine showing (including an impressive day 1 performance in the 5 on 5 action), it’s safe to say that Frazier will be a first round, early 2nd round pick in this years draft.
Projected Draft Range: 20-35
