Keita Bates-Diop
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Weaknesses & Concerns:
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Report By: Mark Wahlen
Profile:
Strengths:
Physical Tools
One of the most apparent appeals of Keita as an NBA prospect is his elite physical tools. At this years NBA combine, he measured 6’8.5” tall (in shoes) with a 7’3” wingspan, while weighing 224 pounds at 5.35% body fat. Those measurables are comparable to current NBA forwards such as Trevor Ariza (6’8.25” tall, 7’2” wingspan and 201 pounds), Marvin Williams (6’8.25” tall, 7’3.5” wingspan and 228 pounds), Rudy Gay (6’8” tall, 7’3” wingspan and 222 pounds), Luc Mbah A Moute (6’7.5” tall, 7’2.5” wingspan and 221 pounds), Al-Farouq Aminu (6’8.5” tall, 7’3.25” wingspan and 216 pounds), Kawhi Leonard (6’7” tall, 7’3” wingspan and 227 pounds) and Kyle Anderson (6’8.5” tall, 7’2.75” wingspan and 230 pounds). You get the point. Keita has prototypical size and length for an NBA 3-4 combo forward in todays game.
Finishing at the Rim
Largely related to his elite physical tools, Keita is an elite finisher at the rim. This past season, he scored 1.392 PPP on shot attempts around the basket that weren’t post-ups (90th percentile, 130 FGA’s). His length and soft touch around the basket allow him to finish in a variety of ways at a high level. It’s not uncommon to see Keita use up-and-under scoop shots, finger-rolls, or a variety of touch based shots around the rim. He’s also able to finish over the top of most defenders with his length, even without being an overly explosive athlete around the basket. And while he’s not much of a leaper (more on this later) he is capable of finishing above the rim in space or from a stationary stand still.
Scoring on Cuts
To go along with his ability to finish at the rim, Keita is a high level scorer on cuts to the basket. This past season, he scored 1.403 PPP on cuts (88th percentile, 53 FGA’s), which includes scoring 1.12 PPP on flash cuts (90th percentile) and 1.541 PPP on basket cuts (86th percentile). He’s a fairly high basketball IQ player that knows how to put himself into a position to score, and he has great hands that allow him to catch passes on the move (this being an underrated skill of high-level cutters). It remains to be seen if this part of his game is translatable to the NBA with his average athleticism, but it shouldn’t be too big of a concern when considering his length, basketball IQ and ability to finish at the rim. If anything, it’s an encouraging sign that he could be used as an effective off ball cutter within an organized and well-executed offensive system.
Shooting Upside
Another very intriguing aspect of Keita’s game is his shooting ability. This past season, Keita scored 1.033 points per possession (PPP) on all spot-up shot attempts (72nd percentile) while scoring 1.058 PPP on all 3-point shots (59th percentile) on 5.4 3-point attempts per game (shot 36% from 3 for the year). And while his shooting mechanics have a slight hitch at the top of the shooting motion, his overall shooting form is solid (not as great off the dribble or on the move, but more on this later). This seems to be supported by his high-level free throw shooting (79% this past season and 77% for his career) which is often a strong indicator of overall shooting mechanics. His shot also has a high release point that (when combined with his elite length) allows him to shoot comfortably over the top of almost any defender. If you’d like to see a great example of this, search for Keita’s highlights against Michigan State on YouTube. It’s a game in which Keita was guarded (at times) by Jaren Jackson Jr., who is one of the longer, more athletic and better defenders in this entire draft class. Despite this, Keita was still able to get his shot off cleanly over the top of Jacksons’ shot contests (KBD ended that game with 32 points). And while there are some question marks about whether or not his shooting is real (more on this later), there are plenty of promising signs that he’ll be at least an average shooter at the next level.
Self-Shot Creation Upside
Although he’s not the quickest with the ball in his hands, nor does he possess high level ball handling skills, Keita is comfortable putting the ball on the floor with either hand. He’s most effective when attacking bigger and slower 4’s on the perimeter, but his size also allows him to post-up and back down smaller defenders (and shoot over the top of them) when they switch onto him. He’s also shown some flashes of more advanced shot creation skills with spin moves, simple (but effective) crossovers, etc. It remains to be seen if this skill will translate to the NBA where he’ll be facing up against bigger, stronger and more athletic defenders, but it’s something that NBA teams should value as it adds to his offensive upside and potential to play as a playmaking 4.
3 Level Scorer Upside
Along with his shooting and shot creation upside off the dribble, Keita is has a surprisingly good floater game that brings him within the realm of developing into a 3 level scorer one day. This past season, he scored 0.972 PPP on runners (or floaters), good enough to be in the 82nd percentile in that category (on 36 FGA’s). And even though he’s not the best midrange shooter, it’s good to see that he’s capable of being an effective scorer in the midrange, especially since he may not be able to get all the way to the basket as easily in the NBA with his average athleticism. If he can master his floater game and add a more effective midrange shot, while also maintaining his perimeter spot-up shooting and rim finishing abilities, Keita could become a dangerous scoring forward in the NBA. It’s unlikely that he reaches that level of offensive skill-set, but it’s something that’s not totally out of his realm of realistic outcomes.
Positional Rebounding
Keita is also a good rebounder for a wing/forward; averaging 8.7 total rebounds per game this past season, with a respectable 15.6% total rebounding percentage (TRB%) and 24.5% defensive rebounding percentage (DRB%). His fundamentals are solid, as are his rebounding instincts and motor. This bodes well for Keita when projecting him as a potential floor spacing or playmaking 4 in the NBA. If NBA teams decide to play Keita at the 4, they should feel comfortable that he won’t be a liability on the boards.
Pick & Roll Versatility
One of the more unique and intriguing aspects of Keita’s game is his versatility in the pick & roll (P&R) as a high level P&R ball handler as well as being a high level P&R roll man. This past season, Keita scored 1.159 PPP as the P&R roll man (72nd percentile, 38 FGA’s) and 1.105 PPP as the P&R ball handler (96th percentile, 16 FGA’s). His size, good screening fundamentals, shooting ability, good hands for catching passes and ability to finish around the basket all make him a versatile and dangerous screener/roller in the P&R. He can just as easily and effectively pick and pop as he can roll to the basket. This makes him a tough match-up for most defenders, as they can’t rely on him being used in the same way each time he’s used as the screener. And despite having a fairly small sample size of Keita being used as the ball handler in P&R’s, it makes sense that he’d be at least an average P&R ball handler scorer with his ability to handle the ball with either hand and shoot (in case the D goes under the screen). It may be more of an untapped skill at this point in his career (especially when considering his limitations as a passer), but it’s a very intriguing one to NBA teams who would greatly value his versatility as a wing who can be used both as a screener and as a ball handler in the P&R.
Defensive Versatility Upside
He’s not the quickest footed defender in the world, which shows up in his isolation defensive numbers a bit (0.811 PPP allowed when defending in isolation, 46th percentile), but he’s also not a defensive liability on the perimeter either. His length, (and intelligence in using that length) allows him to make-up the speed or quickness differences in most match-ups. And he’s particularly good at using his length to bother or block shots from behind when he’s beaten off the dribble. This shows up (in part) in his defensive numbers against runner/floater shots; this past season, he only allowed 0.632 PPP (61st percentile) when defending runners, and only 0.688 PPP (67th percentile) when defending the P&R ball handler. Along with his shot blocking abilities when trailing a play, he’s also a fairly decent weak side/help defender shot blocker (averaged 1.6 blocks per game this past season with 5 games of 3+ blocks, and averaged 1.2 BLK’s for his collegiate career). His size and length also make him a capable defender in the paint against bigger opponents. This past season, Keita only allowed 0.683 PPP when defending post-up shots (76th percentile) and 0.982 PPP when defending shots around the basket that weren’t post-ups (51st percentile). Teams will want to see how he can defend NBA caliber athletes in space, but with his length and basketball IQ, there’s a lot there to like with him as a versatile defender.
Weaknesses & Concerns:
Age
Keita Bates-Diop is coming off his 4th year junior season with Ohio State (meaning, he’s essentially a senior) and is already 22 years old. That’s quite a bit older for a 1st round prospect in this draft class, in which many of the projected 1st round prospects are somewhere between 18 and 20 years old. This isn’t to say that KBD can’t develop or improve once drafted, but he's likely closer to his ceiling than some of the younger 1st round prospects. In some ways, this will be more appealing to teams that will value his mature personality and skill-set, but it also means that he’ll already be 25 or 26 by the time his rookie contract is up. Assuming he signs a 3 to 4 year contract at the end of his rookie deal, that would take him up to 28 or 29 years old, which is beginning to approach the downslope of his prime. Not a huge deal, but it’s something for NBA teams to evaluate when considering his overall draft value.
Athleticism?
Another question mark about Keita Bates-Diop is his somewhat average athleticism. At this years’ combine, he posted a 35” max vertical, which was 32nd best out of the 57 prospects that participated. In comparison, that’s essentially the same max vertical as some of the bigger center and power forward prospects that were tested this year, such as Omari Spellman, Bruno Fernando, Sagaba Konate and Mortiz Wagner. Although, he did a little better with the no-step vertical, posting a mark of 30.5”, which was 24th best of those who participated. And it’s not to say that those numbers are bad; they’re still comparable to current NBA players such as Otto Porter, Mason Plumlee, Allen Crabbe, Robert Covington, Jae Crowder, Draymond Green, etc. But they’re just average. Additionally, Keita also posted the 24th best lane agility time (11.2 seconds), 42nd best shuttle run time (3.28 seconds) and 21st best 3-quarter court sprint time (3.17 seconds). Again, not the worst athletic performance measures, but they’re not elite either. Taking these measurements into consideration along with what’s seen in film, and there’s some cause for pause about his athletic ability, especially in regards to his ability to defend perimeter players in space. In those situations, Keita tends to be a little slow-footed, relying more on his length and body positioning than quickness and speed. It works well in college, but it’s unlikely to translate as well to the NBA where perimeter players are much quicker, faster, stronger and smarter. It also shows up on his drives to the basket, where he can sometimes more or less lumber to the basket rather than drive to the basket with explosive decisiveness. He’s also not an explosive leaper and finisher at the rim in traffic, opting for soft finishes around defenders rather than explosive finishes over the top of them. This in part, plays a role in his low free-throw shooting rate (career 2.5 FTA’s per game, 4.1 FTA’s per game this past season being his career high). Not a huge deal, but all these factors about his functional athleticism will be things that NBA teams will want to investigate and explore more prior to the draft. And considering his older age, it’s unlikely that Keita has much (if any) untapped athletic ability left in his tank. This is probably what you’re getting with him.
3 Point Shooting?
Although Keita has nice overall shooting upside, the translatability of his 3-point shot to the NBA still remains somewhat of a question mark. This past season (as previously mentioned), he scored a slightly above average 1.058 PPP on all 3-point shots in the half court (59th percentile). But he’s just a mediocre career 35% 3-point shooter, with his best 3-point shooting season (of more than 2.0 3PA’s per game) being this past year, in which he shot an average 36%. And when looking at his shooting mechanics, there are some concerns as to how well they’ll work when shooting the longer NBA 3 ball, as he doesn’t get a lot of elevation on his shots and is prone to shooting off balance. Keita will need to prove that he can hit 3’s from NBA range at an (at least) average rate for a large part of his value to be realized at the next level.
Shooting Off The Dribble/On the Move?
Keita can struggle to shoot off the dribble and when on the move. This shows up some in his shooting numbers off the dribble, where he only scored 0.754 PPP on all shots off the dribble (44th percentile) and his mid-range shooting, where he only scored 0.593 PPP (31st percentile) this past season. The primary reason for this is because he can struggle to maintain proper shooting balance when pulling up off the dribble or on the move. He’s also prone to inconsistent footwork, over-rotation of his shoulders and has a poor habit of fading away or to one side, or the other, on his shots, all of which are exacerbated when he’s shooting off the dribble or on the move. These are fairly correctable parts of his shooting motion, but it’s something that will take time and work to correct.
Playmaking & Passing?
Perhaps the most glaring hole in Keita’s game is his playmaking and passing skills. He only averaged 1.1 assists per game for his entire collegiate career, never cracking the 2+ assists per game average at any point in time (highest was this past season at 1.6 assists per game). In fact, the highest number of assists he ever achieved in one game was 5, and he only did so 3 times. Furthermore, he only recorded 4 assists 4 separate times, 3 assists 6 times and for the rest of his collegiate games he only managed to get 2 or less assists. Some of this is due to his role on Ohio State, especially this past season, where he was used predominantly as a scorer or spot-up shooter. But regardless of his role, it’s concerning to see such consistently low assist numbers throughout his collegiate career. In the modern NBA, it’s vitally important that every player on the floor be at least an average passer and playmaker. Is Keita capable of that? That’s a major question about his game that seemingly puts a damper on his playmaking 4 projections in the NBA. However, Keita is a pretty high IQ player, and has shown flashes of making correct reads (albeit in very small sample sizes), so maybe there is some untapped potential there. After all, his offensive numbers when including passes were pretty good this past season: 1.2 PPP on P&R’s when including passes (97th percentile, 22 FGA’s) and 1.0 PPP on post-ups when including passes (77th percentile, 80 FGA’s).
Self-Shot Creation?
Keita isn’t a super advanced ball handler, nor is he the quickest with the ball in his hands, so he can struggle to create off the dribble in isolation, especially against more athletic and smarter defenders. This shows up in his isolation scoring numbers, where he only scored an average 0.754 PPP (43rd percentile). If he’s played more as 4 in the NBA, then this isn’t as concerning as his ball handling and shot creation will be adequate against most off the bench and some starting 4’s in the league. But if teams are projecting him as a playmaking 3, it could be an issue.
Post-up Scoring?
Related to his ability to play the 4 in the NBA is Keita’s ability to score on post-ups. And while post-up scoring attempts are quickly fading from NBA offenses, it’s still a valuable skill for larger wings and forwards to possess for when they have smaller defenders switched onto them. In the case of Keita, he can struggle to score on post-ups. This past season, he only scored 0.884 PPP (66th percentile, 65 FGA’s) on post-up shots. Not a huge concern when considering how little he’ll be asked to score on post-ups in the NBA, but it’s an aspect of his game that’ll be more pronounced if teams want to utilize him as a 4.
Health?
Another important question about Keita that will need to be answered before he’s drafted is in regards to his health. 3 of the 4 years that he played at Ohio State went by without major health issues, but in 2016-17, he missed almost the entire year (only played 9 games) with a stress fracture (and subsequent surgery) of his leg. It’s a promising sign that Keita was able to play and start in all 34 games this past season after being one year removed from the injury and surgery, but lower extremity stress fractures can be tricky injuries that find a way of coming back (just ask Frank Jackson). This being said, if the medical reports on Keita all come back clean, there’s no reason to worry about his health moving forward. But if they don’t, it could lead to him dropping down the draft board significantly on draft night. So it’s something to keep an eye on.
NBA Fit: Coming soon!
Draft Range:
In today’s NBA game, versatility is a premium. And Keita, who projects well as a 3-4 combo forward with shooting and defensive upside, brings a lot to the versatility table. His older age, average athletic abilities and questionable playmaking will cause teams in the lottery to bypass him for higher upside picks, but he should draw a lot of attention throughout the mid to late first round as essentially every NBA team could use a versatile combo forward like Keita on their roster.
Projected Draft Range: 14-26
- 6'8.5" tall combo forward from Ohio State (22 years old)
- Attended University High School in Normal, Illinois
- Ranking out of high school: 26th (4 star recruit)
- 2018 Big Ten Player of the Year
- Son of Richard & Wilma Bates (father played basketball at Creighton University)
- Enjoys "relaxing and listening to music"
Strengths:
Physical Tools
One of the most apparent appeals of Keita as an NBA prospect is his elite physical tools. At this years NBA combine, he measured 6’8.5” tall (in shoes) with a 7’3” wingspan, while weighing 224 pounds at 5.35% body fat. Those measurables are comparable to current NBA forwards such as Trevor Ariza (6’8.25” tall, 7’2” wingspan and 201 pounds), Marvin Williams (6’8.25” tall, 7’3.5” wingspan and 228 pounds), Rudy Gay (6’8” tall, 7’3” wingspan and 222 pounds), Luc Mbah A Moute (6’7.5” tall, 7’2.5” wingspan and 221 pounds), Al-Farouq Aminu (6’8.5” tall, 7’3.25” wingspan and 216 pounds), Kawhi Leonard (6’7” tall, 7’3” wingspan and 227 pounds) and Kyle Anderson (6’8.5” tall, 7’2.75” wingspan and 230 pounds). You get the point. Keita has prototypical size and length for an NBA 3-4 combo forward in todays game.
Finishing at the Rim
Largely related to his elite physical tools, Keita is an elite finisher at the rim. This past season, he scored 1.392 PPP on shot attempts around the basket that weren’t post-ups (90th percentile, 130 FGA’s). His length and soft touch around the basket allow him to finish in a variety of ways at a high level. It’s not uncommon to see Keita use up-and-under scoop shots, finger-rolls, or a variety of touch based shots around the rim. He’s also able to finish over the top of most defenders with his length, even without being an overly explosive athlete around the basket. And while he’s not much of a leaper (more on this later) he is capable of finishing above the rim in space or from a stationary stand still.
Scoring on Cuts
To go along with his ability to finish at the rim, Keita is a high level scorer on cuts to the basket. This past season, he scored 1.403 PPP on cuts (88th percentile, 53 FGA’s), which includes scoring 1.12 PPP on flash cuts (90th percentile) and 1.541 PPP on basket cuts (86th percentile). He’s a fairly high basketball IQ player that knows how to put himself into a position to score, and he has great hands that allow him to catch passes on the move (this being an underrated skill of high-level cutters). It remains to be seen if this part of his game is translatable to the NBA with his average athleticism, but it shouldn’t be too big of a concern when considering his length, basketball IQ and ability to finish at the rim. If anything, it’s an encouraging sign that he could be used as an effective off ball cutter within an organized and well-executed offensive system.
Shooting Upside
Another very intriguing aspect of Keita’s game is his shooting ability. This past season, Keita scored 1.033 points per possession (PPP) on all spot-up shot attempts (72nd percentile) while scoring 1.058 PPP on all 3-point shots (59th percentile) on 5.4 3-point attempts per game (shot 36% from 3 for the year). And while his shooting mechanics have a slight hitch at the top of the shooting motion, his overall shooting form is solid (not as great off the dribble or on the move, but more on this later). This seems to be supported by his high-level free throw shooting (79% this past season and 77% for his career) which is often a strong indicator of overall shooting mechanics. His shot also has a high release point that (when combined with his elite length) allows him to shoot comfortably over the top of almost any defender. If you’d like to see a great example of this, search for Keita’s highlights against Michigan State on YouTube. It’s a game in which Keita was guarded (at times) by Jaren Jackson Jr., who is one of the longer, more athletic and better defenders in this entire draft class. Despite this, Keita was still able to get his shot off cleanly over the top of Jacksons’ shot contests (KBD ended that game with 32 points). And while there are some question marks about whether or not his shooting is real (more on this later), there are plenty of promising signs that he’ll be at least an average shooter at the next level.
Self-Shot Creation Upside
Although he’s not the quickest with the ball in his hands, nor does he possess high level ball handling skills, Keita is comfortable putting the ball on the floor with either hand. He’s most effective when attacking bigger and slower 4’s on the perimeter, but his size also allows him to post-up and back down smaller defenders (and shoot over the top of them) when they switch onto him. He’s also shown some flashes of more advanced shot creation skills with spin moves, simple (but effective) crossovers, etc. It remains to be seen if this skill will translate to the NBA where he’ll be facing up against bigger, stronger and more athletic defenders, but it’s something that NBA teams should value as it adds to his offensive upside and potential to play as a playmaking 4.
3 Level Scorer Upside
Along with his shooting and shot creation upside off the dribble, Keita is has a surprisingly good floater game that brings him within the realm of developing into a 3 level scorer one day. This past season, he scored 0.972 PPP on runners (or floaters), good enough to be in the 82nd percentile in that category (on 36 FGA’s). And even though he’s not the best midrange shooter, it’s good to see that he’s capable of being an effective scorer in the midrange, especially since he may not be able to get all the way to the basket as easily in the NBA with his average athleticism. If he can master his floater game and add a more effective midrange shot, while also maintaining his perimeter spot-up shooting and rim finishing abilities, Keita could become a dangerous scoring forward in the NBA. It’s unlikely that he reaches that level of offensive skill-set, but it’s something that’s not totally out of his realm of realistic outcomes.
Positional Rebounding
Keita is also a good rebounder for a wing/forward; averaging 8.7 total rebounds per game this past season, with a respectable 15.6% total rebounding percentage (TRB%) and 24.5% defensive rebounding percentage (DRB%). His fundamentals are solid, as are his rebounding instincts and motor. This bodes well for Keita when projecting him as a potential floor spacing or playmaking 4 in the NBA. If NBA teams decide to play Keita at the 4, they should feel comfortable that he won’t be a liability on the boards.
Pick & Roll Versatility
One of the more unique and intriguing aspects of Keita’s game is his versatility in the pick & roll (P&R) as a high level P&R ball handler as well as being a high level P&R roll man. This past season, Keita scored 1.159 PPP as the P&R roll man (72nd percentile, 38 FGA’s) and 1.105 PPP as the P&R ball handler (96th percentile, 16 FGA’s). His size, good screening fundamentals, shooting ability, good hands for catching passes and ability to finish around the basket all make him a versatile and dangerous screener/roller in the P&R. He can just as easily and effectively pick and pop as he can roll to the basket. This makes him a tough match-up for most defenders, as they can’t rely on him being used in the same way each time he’s used as the screener. And despite having a fairly small sample size of Keita being used as the ball handler in P&R’s, it makes sense that he’d be at least an average P&R ball handler scorer with his ability to handle the ball with either hand and shoot (in case the D goes under the screen). It may be more of an untapped skill at this point in his career (especially when considering his limitations as a passer), but it’s a very intriguing one to NBA teams who would greatly value his versatility as a wing who can be used both as a screener and as a ball handler in the P&R.
Defensive Versatility Upside
He’s not the quickest footed defender in the world, which shows up in his isolation defensive numbers a bit (0.811 PPP allowed when defending in isolation, 46th percentile), but he’s also not a defensive liability on the perimeter either. His length, (and intelligence in using that length) allows him to make-up the speed or quickness differences in most match-ups. And he’s particularly good at using his length to bother or block shots from behind when he’s beaten off the dribble. This shows up (in part) in his defensive numbers against runner/floater shots; this past season, he only allowed 0.632 PPP (61st percentile) when defending runners, and only 0.688 PPP (67th percentile) when defending the P&R ball handler. Along with his shot blocking abilities when trailing a play, he’s also a fairly decent weak side/help defender shot blocker (averaged 1.6 blocks per game this past season with 5 games of 3+ blocks, and averaged 1.2 BLK’s for his collegiate career). His size and length also make him a capable defender in the paint against bigger opponents. This past season, Keita only allowed 0.683 PPP when defending post-up shots (76th percentile) and 0.982 PPP when defending shots around the basket that weren’t post-ups (51st percentile). Teams will want to see how he can defend NBA caliber athletes in space, but with his length and basketball IQ, there’s a lot there to like with him as a versatile defender.
Weaknesses & Concerns:
Age
Keita Bates-Diop is coming off his 4th year junior season with Ohio State (meaning, he’s essentially a senior) and is already 22 years old. That’s quite a bit older for a 1st round prospect in this draft class, in which many of the projected 1st round prospects are somewhere between 18 and 20 years old. This isn’t to say that KBD can’t develop or improve once drafted, but he's likely closer to his ceiling than some of the younger 1st round prospects. In some ways, this will be more appealing to teams that will value his mature personality and skill-set, but it also means that he’ll already be 25 or 26 by the time his rookie contract is up. Assuming he signs a 3 to 4 year contract at the end of his rookie deal, that would take him up to 28 or 29 years old, which is beginning to approach the downslope of his prime. Not a huge deal, but it’s something for NBA teams to evaluate when considering his overall draft value.
Athleticism?
Another question mark about Keita Bates-Diop is his somewhat average athleticism. At this years’ combine, he posted a 35” max vertical, which was 32nd best out of the 57 prospects that participated. In comparison, that’s essentially the same max vertical as some of the bigger center and power forward prospects that were tested this year, such as Omari Spellman, Bruno Fernando, Sagaba Konate and Mortiz Wagner. Although, he did a little better with the no-step vertical, posting a mark of 30.5”, which was 24th best of those who participated. And it’s not to say that those numbers are bad; they’re still comparable to current NBA players such as Otto Porter, Mason Plumlee, Allen Crabbe, Robert Covington, Jae Crowder, Draymond Green, etc. But they’re just average. Additionally, Keita also posted the 24th best lane agility time (11.2 seconds), 42nd best shuttle run time (3.28 seconds) and 21st best 3-quarter court sprint time (3.17 seconds). Again, not the worst athletic performance measures, but they’re not elite either. Taking these measurements into consideration along with what’s seen in film, and there’s some cause for pause about his athletic ability, especially in regards to his ability to defend perimeter players in space. In those situations, Keita tends to be a little slow-footed, relying more on his length and body positioning than quickness and speed. It works well in college, but it’s unlikely to translate as well to the NBA where perimeter players are much quicker, faster, stronger and smarter. It also shows up on his drives to the basket, where he can sometimes more or less lumber to the basket rather than drive to the basket with explosive decisiveness. He’s also not an explosive leaper and finisher at the rim in traffic, opting for soft finishes around defenders rather than explosive finishes over the top of them. This in part, plays a role in his low free-throw shooting rate (career 2.5 FTA’s per game, 4.1 FTA’s per game this past season being his career high). Not a huge deal, but all these factors about his functional athleticism will be things that NBA teams will want to investigate and explore more prior to the draft. And considering his older age, it’s unlikely that Keita has much (if any) untapped athletic ability left in his tank. This is probably what you’re getting with him.
3 Point Shooting?
Although Keita has nice overall shooting upside, the translatability of his 3-point shot to the NBA still remains somewhat of a question mark. This past season (as previously mentioned), he scored a slightly above average 1.058 PPP on all 3-point shots in the half court (59th percentile). But he’s just a mediocre career 35% 3-point shooter, with his best 3-point shooting season (of more than 2.0 3PA’s per game) being this past year, in which he shot an average 36%. And when looking at his shooting mechanics, there are some concerns as to how well they’ll work when shooting the longer NBA 3 ball, as he doesn’t get a lot of elevation on his shots and is prone to shooting off balance. Keita will need to prove that he can hit 3’s from NBA range at an (at least) average rate for a large part of his value to be realized at the next level.
Shooting Off The Dribble/On the Move?
Keita can struggle to shoot off the dribble and when on the move. This shows up some in his shooting numbers off the dribble, where he only scored 0.754 PPP on all shots off the dribble (44th percentile) and his mid-range shooting, where he only scored 0.593 PPP (31st percentile) this past season. The primary reason for this is because he can struggle to maintain proper shooting balance when pulling up off the dribble or on the move. He’s also prone to inconsistent footwork, over-rotation of his shoulders and has a poor habit of fading away or to one side, or the other, on his shots, all of which are exacerbated when he’s shooting off the dribble or on the move. These are fairly correctable parts of his shooting motion, but it’s something that will take time and work to correct.
Playmaking & Passing?
Perhaps the most glaring hole in Keita’s game is his playmaking and passing skills. He only averaged 1.1 assists per game for his entire collegiate career, never cracking the 2+ assists per game average at any point in time (highest was this past season at 1.6 assists per game). In fact, the highest number of assists he ever achieved in one game was 5, and he only did so 3 times. Furthermore, he only recorded 4 assists 4 separate times, 3 assists 6 times and for the rest of his collegiate games he only managed to get 2 or less assists. Some of this is due to his role on Ohio State, especially this past season, where he was used predominantly as a scorer or spot-up shooter. But regardless of his role, it’s concerning to see such consistently low assist numbers throughout his collegiate career. In the modern NBA, it’s vitally important that every player on the floor be at least an average passer and playmaker. Is Keita capable of that? That’s a major question about his game that seemingly puts a damper on his playmaking 4 projections in the NBA. However, Keita is a pretty high IQ player, and has shown flashes of making correct reads (albeit in very small sample sizes), so maybe there is some untapped potential there. After all, his offensive numbers when including passes were pretty good this past season: 1.2 PPP on P&R’s when including passes (97th percentile, 22 FGA’s) and 1.0 PPP on post-ups when including passes (77th percentile, 80 FGA’s).
Self-Shot Creation?
Keita isn’t a super advanced ball handler, nor is he the quickest with the ball in his hands, so he can struggle to create off the dribble in isolation, especially against more athletic and smarter defenders. This shows up in his isolation scoring numbers, where he only scored an average 0.754 PPP (43rd percentile). If he’s played more as 4 in the NBA, then this isn’t as concerning as his ball handling and shot creation will be adequate against most off the bench and some starting 4’s in the league. But if teams are projecting him as a playmaking 3, it could be an issue.
Post-up Scoring?
Related to his ability to play the 4 in the NBA is Keita’s ability to score on post-ups. And while post-up scoring attempts are quickly fading from NBA offenses, it’s still a valuable skill for larger wings and forwards to possess for when they have smaller defenders switched onto them. In the case of Keita, he can struggle to score on post-ups. This past season, he only scored 0.884 PPP (66th percentile, 65 FGA’s) on post-up shots. Not a huge concern when considering how little he’ll be asked to score on post-ups in the NBA, but it’s an aspect of his game that’ll be more pronounced if teams want to utilize him as a 4.
Health?
Another important question about Keita that will need to be answered before he’s drafted is in regards to his health. 3 of the 4 years that he played at Ohio State went by without major health issues, but in 2016-17, he missed almost the entire year (only played 9 games) with a stress fracture (and subsequent surgery) of his leg. It’s a promising sign that Keita was able to play and start in all 34 games this past season after being one year removed from the injury and surgery, but lower extremity stress fractures can be tricky injuries that find a way of coming back (just ask Frank Jackson). This being said, if the medical reports on Keita all come back clean, there’s no reason to worry about his health moving forward. But if they don’t, it could lead to him dropping down the draft board significantly on draft night. So it’s something to keep an eye on.
NBA Fit: Coming soon!
Draft Range:
In today’s NBA game, versatility is a premium. And Keita, who projects well as a 3-4 combo forward with shooting and defensive upside, brings a lot to the versatility table. His older age, average athletic abilities and questionable playmaking will cause teams in the lottery to bypass him for higher upside picks, but he should draw a lot of attention throughout the mid to late first round as essentially every NBA team could use a versatile combo forward like Keita on their roster.
Projected Draft Range: 14-26
